Every New York Governor Poll Shows Hochul Ahead of Blakeman

If you’re following the race for New York governor as Election Day gets closer, the latest polls offer a look at where voters stand right now.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is ahead of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in every publicly released statewide head-to-head poll included in this review. The size of the lead changes from poll to poll, but the direction has remained the same.

The polls are a snapshot of voter opinion right now, not a prediction of what will happen when New Yorkers cast their ballots.

New York Poll Shows Hochul With a 12 Point Lead Over Blakeman

A new Emerson College Polling and PIX11 News survey found Hochul with 52% support among likely New York voters, compared with 40% for Blakeman. Eight percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided.

The poll, which was also reported by PIX11, was conducted October 3 through October 5 among 900 likely New York voters.

Emerson reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. It found Hochul’s strongest support among Democratic voters, while independent voters surveyed favored Blakeman 55% to 34%.

Second New York Governor Poll Finds a Similar Gap

The Emerson survey isn’t the only recent poll to show Hochul ahead.

A Marist Poll conducted October 1 through October 4 found Hochul leading Blakeman 53% to 42% among registered New York voters, an 11-point difference.

Even though the Emerson and Marist polls used different methods and surveyed different groups of voters, they both point to a similar lead for Hochul right now. Emerson surveyed likely voters through text-to-web and online panel interviews, while Marist used a mix of live phone interviews, text, and online responses from registered voters.

Other New York Governor Polls Also Show Hochul Ahead

The most recent Emerson and Marist polls are part of a broader run of statewide surveys released this year.

A Siena College poll conducted September 11 through September 17 found Hochul ahead 50% to 41% among likely voters.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted September 17 through September 20 found Hochul ahead 58% to 39% among likely voters.

A Co/Efficient survey commissioned by the Coalition to Protect Nassau found Hochul ahead 48% to 41% among likely voters. That survey was conducted September 23 through September 25. Because it was commissioned by an outside advocacy group, it is important to consider who paid for it along with its methodology and results.

The RealClearPolling average, which tracks publicly available statewide polling, had Hochul ahead by 13 points as of October 8.

Earlier statewide polls released this year also showed Hochul ahead, although the margins ranged from single digits to more than 20 points.

Some Candidate and Outside Group Polls Show a Tighter Race

Some surveys commissioned by campaigns or outside groups have shown a closer contest, but they have still shown Hochul ahead.

The New York Post reported that a Blakeman campaign survey conducted in late August showed Hochul ahead by about four points. The same report cited a survey for the pro-Blakeman Strong and Safe Super PAC that also showed Hochul ahead by four points.

Campaign and advocacy group polls can still provide information, but readers should know who commissioned them before comparing their results with university and independent polling.

What New York Voters Say Matters Most This Election

The Emerson poll also asked voters about the issues they see as most important in New York.

Thirty-four percent named the economy as the top issue facing the state. Housing affordability came next at 17%, followed by threats to democracy, crime, and immigration.

When asked about their biggest economic concern, the cost of everyday goods was the most common answer. Housing costs and taxes were also among the concerns voters mentioned.

Those issues matter because voters don’t make their choices based on one poll number alone. They bring their own experiences with the cost of groceries, housing, taxes, public safety, and the issues they feel affect their families most.

How to Read the Latest New York Governor Race Polls

Polls can be useful, but they’re best viewed as one piece of information, not a crystal ball.

As Rutgers University explains, public opinion polls are designed to measure what voters are thinking at a particular moment and can help explain what is driving voter behavior. They are not meant to guarantee an election result.

When you see a poll making the rounds, it helps to look beyond the headline. Check who was surveyed, when the poll was conducted, who commissioned it, and how much the results could vary. Caltech’s guide to political polling explains why credible polls should share their sampling methods and margin of error, while also acknowledging that even well-run polls have limits.

For New York voters, the takeaway is simple: every statewide poll included here shows Hochul ahead at this point in the race. The final decision, of course, will be made by the people who show up and vote.